To those who ask, "Is all this really worth it? Why can't domestic demand fill the gap?", it is important to remind them that only 13 economies since the Second World War have grown at 7 per cent or more for 25 years -- like India needs to. They all had one thing in common: Strong export growth underpinned by strong global engagement, explains Sajjid Z Chinoy.
Upbeat high-frequency indicators and consumer confidence show that Indian economy continues to forge ahead, emerging out of shackles of pandemic, said an article on the state of economy published in RBI Bulletin on Wednesday. The recovery is spearheaded by an uptick in private investment through November-December alongside a turnaround in bank credit offtake and high capex from the government sector (Centre and states). In conjunction, the employment situation has brightened, said the article written by RBI officials.
'We need to be very vigilant as we are passing through some fraught times.'
Red Square and VDNKh easily rank among the most striking places I've visited -- both for their historical significance and architectural splendour.
My admiration for Russian culture, vision and ambition grew with every step as I clocked the miles, Nitin Sathe tells us after a visit to Moscow and St Petersburg.
Seventy years after Pather Panchali released on August 26, 1955, we finally get it. Shuttling between the village of Boral and a studio in Calcutta, caught between worrying about the next purse of funds and wondering which item to mortgage next, Satyajit Ray was explaining Indians to themselves, discovers Sreehari Nair.
Dr Rakesh Mohan, former RBI deputy governor, and Dr Pronab Sen, former chairman of the Indian Statistical Commission discuss the issues facing the Indian rural and manufacturing sectors and what the government must possibly do to improve demand and perk up the Indian economy
'The startup ecosystem, the government, and the owners of large pools of Indian capital need to actively support the creation of these local champions, not pull down the teams that are trying hard to get there.'
'There has been far too much overconfidence about the size and composition of the Indian consumer economy,' notes Mihir S Sharma.
'If you align your ambition with India's rise, the peak of your careers will unfold alongside the peak of India's power.'
Unprecedented bribery charges, farewells, separation, failed union, monumental mergers and record-breaking IPOs, along with a healthy dose of online happenings in the form of spat and lessons in customer care, corporate India saw it all in 2024.
Stock markets will be driven by further developments on the US-China tariff war front along with quarterly earnings announcements from IT majors Wipro and Infosys in a holiday-shortened week, analysts said. Global market trends and trading activity of foreign investors would also dictate market movement this week, experts noted.
The FMCG industry hopes for a revival in consumption growth in 2025 with some 'green shoots' already visible, after having a challenging year amid escalating input costs and a double-digit rise in food inflation, which ultimately slowed down the pace of the urban market growth in the second half of 2024. Soaring prices of commodities such as palm oil, coffee, cocoa and wheat forced FMCG players to go for a hike of 3 to 5 per cent or resort to shrinkflation by reducing pack sizes and grammage to retain attractive price points, fearing a volume loss.
Dubai is positioning itself as a springboard for Indian companies looking to tap into fast-growing emerging markets, including Africa, banking on low tariffs, long-standing trade relations, and a shared vision for regional economic growth, said Mohammad Ali Rashid Lootah, president and chief executive officer, Dubai Chambers, at the Dubai-India Business Forum in Mumbai.
The RBI on Wednesday slashed key interest rate by 25 basis points, for the second time in a row, to support a shuttering economy hit by reciprocal tariffs imposed by the US. Following the rate cut, the key policy rate eased to 6 per cent providing relief to home, auto and corporate loan borrowers.
In an eventful week ahead, stock markets may face volatile trends before the RBI's interest rate decision and the US inflation data announcements, as investors continue to assess the broader implications of US tariffs on global economy and inflation, analysts said. Investors fear that a full-blown trade war will impact global trade and economic growth, according to market experts.
Bessemer Venture Partners has closed $350 million in capital for its second dedicated India fund to back founders in the region, who build enduring companies.
A careful reading of the national income accounts suggests that after a strong recovery from the pandemic, there has been a significant ebbing of dynamism over the last three quarters to more modest levels recently, note Arvind Subramanian and Josh Felman.
'We continue to view India as a standout within EM.'
'India has the potential to grow at more than 7%, with the monetary policy providing a supportive hand.'
Escalating trade tensions amid a tariff war after Donald Trump took over as President of the United States (US) could adversely impact global growth and fuel inflation, an article on the "State of the Economy" in the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) monthly bulletin said.
Acharya emphasised that the time is "really ripe" for land, labour and agricultural reforms in India.
The weakening of inflation, prospects of economic growth, geopolitical uncertainty and comfortable system liquidity may result in the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to cut the repo rate by another 25 basis points, opine top economists. They also said the external economic pressures like trade policies and others would require continued RBI's accommodative stance and policy support for the Indian industry to sustain the growth.
According to the survey carried out by international marketing research firm The Nielsen Company, India has topped the bi-annual Global Consumer Confidence Index for the fifth time in a row.
Container prices have shot up by up to 300 per cent in the past one month owing to geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran following the former's attack on Hamas, causing shortages and pushing consumer durables companies to increase prices. Companies have planned increases but some are yet to decide on the extent of the increase.
'...how do they consume and contribute to the GDP?'
India decisively withstood global headwinds in 2023 and is likely to remain as the world's fastest-growing major economy on the back of growing demand, moderate inflation, stable interest rate regime and robust foreign exchange reserves. Despite widespread pessimism witnessed among the developed nations and the worsening geopolitical situation, India recorded a gross domestic product (GDP) expansion of 6.1 per cent in the March quarter. The growth moved up to 7.8 per cent in the June quarter and was 7.6 per cent in the September quarter. For the first six months of this fiscal, the growth was 7.7 per cent.
Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Tuesday commended Indian financial sector regulators for doing a "world-class job" and bringing greater transparency into the system. Underlining that she is not against questioning or critiquing regulators, Sitharaman said there is a need to be "extremely conscious" about contributions made by them as well. Speaking at the Financial Express Best Banks Awards, the finance minister said, "I strongly recommend that facts are taken on board before we discuss anything to do with the regulators, strictly speaking."
India and the US are expected to have smooth trade negotiations after US President Donald Trump and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi had a productive meeting during Modi's visit to the White House last month, Stephen A Schwarzman, chairman, chief executive officer, and co-founder of one of the world's largest alternative investment firms, Blackstone Group, said in Mumbai on Wednesday.
India is among the three least-favoured Asian stock markets, according to BofA Securities whose survey found that 10 per cent of fund managers are underweight on Indian equities from a 12-month perspective.
Indian economy is gathering momentum in the second quarter, though inflation would continue to average above the central bank's comfort zone of 6 per cent, said an article in the RBI's monthly bulletin released on Thursday. The consumer price index (CPI) based retail inflation shot up significantly to 7.44 per cent in July, from 4.87 per cent in the preceding month, mainly due to soaring prices of tomato, vegetables and other food items. In his address to the nation on the Independence Day, Prime Minister Narendra Modi vowed to take more steps to contain price rise.
India's Venture Capital (VC) ecosystem exhibited robust growth in 2024, with funding surging 43 per cent year-on-year to $13.7 billion, according to a report. This recovery was fuelled by a 45 per cent rise in deal activity, with 1,270 transactions recorded, reinforcing India's position as the second largest market for venture capital and growth funding in the Asia-Pacific region, the report by Bain & Company and IVCA said.
'That refresh programme -- because they are big aircraft and we cannot ground them all at the same time -- will last well into 2027.'
After two months of net outflow, foreign investors turned buyers in June, infusing Rs 26,565 crore in Indian equities, driven by political stability and a sharp rebound in markets. Looking ahead, attention will gradually shift towards the budget and Q1 FY25 earnings, which could determine the sustainability of FPI flows, Vipul Bhowar, Director, Listed Investments, Waterfield Advisors, said.
India's services sector activity eased slightly in March, weighed down by a marginal slowdown in sales amid softer demand conditions and easing inflationary pressures, a monthly survey said on Friday. The seasonally adjusted HSBC India Services PMI Business Activity Index fell from February's reading of 59.0 to 58.5 in March, but remained above its long-run average of 54.2.
The last time this happened was in 1996.
The reasons were decreases in respondents' confidence in the economy and in employment conditions. Sentiments related to inflation fell sharply in August. Despite the expected increase in household income, the consumer spending index recorded a marginal decline. "The urban consumer in India is clearly telegraphing significant concern about the future of the Indian economy," said Sam Thomas, Boston Analytics' director of research and development.
'My advice: Don't mark your portfolio to market every day. Focus on survival.'
10 largecaps stocks which stand to gain from the Budget.
